As long every bit I'm doing this, I mightiness too create this. In my morn post,
I was non variety to Nate Silver. Those who accept spoken amongst me close the topic know that this is non a novel thing. I accept exactly never been impressed amongst his work. Yes, he correctly called exactly close every race terminal time. So did everyone who looked at elementary polling averages. Fuck Dylan, but you lot don't postulate a weatherman to know which vogue the air current blows. (And yes, I know what that trouble was actually about, but I'm nonetheless non impressed amongst Dylan either).
Anyway, I said Nate Silver was total of shit, but let's enquire an updated question.
How full of shit is Nate Silver? As of typing, the 538 "polls only" forecast gives Trump a 15.3% chance. PredictWise gives Trump a 9% chance. Let's say PredictWise is right, in addition to 538 is incorrect because, on average, the prediction markets crunch the polls. So what? Both lay the odds heavily against Trump. It is solely a 6.3 percent betoken difference.
Well, 6.3/9=.7. If PredictWise is right in addition to 538's "polls only" forecast is wrong, in addition to hence 538 overestimates Trump's conduct chances of victory past times 70%. If you lot are
betting, sorry, "investing," that costs you lot big. You volition purchase in addition to sell at the incorrect prices if you lot follow Silver's advice.
Do non allow yourself become crucified on a cross of Silver.
And to repeat: if a major terrorist assault occurs, or something similar that to plow over Trump the presidency, that is
not a vindication of Silver's calculation method, nor is it a vindication if the polls are all exactly incorrect across the board. His method is based on assumptions close independence in addition to interdependence betwixt acre contests that cannot survive justified. Unforeseen in addition to unforeseeable events would exactly survive a demonstration of the intrinsically unpredictable nature of this year.
Settle down, monkeys.
